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What this surface is for
- A read-only view of the current governed regime state: the slow structural regime kept separate from the fast, reversible tactical instability overlay.
- It shows state verbatim from the governed read-model; it computes no regime logic and makes no forecast or recommendation.
Structural regime vs tactical instability
- Structural regime (slow / stateful) is the standing regime label; it is never overwritten by the tactical overlay.
- Tactical instability (fast / reversible) carries flip risk, confidence decay, gate state and disagreement - a separate, reversible layer.
- When tactical inputs are unavailable the overlay is flagged unavailable (not shown as calm).
Confidence & flip risk
- Confidence and flip risk are shown as governed values. No good/bad threshold colouring is applied - the read-model carries no thresholds (they are indeterminate, not zero).
- Read confidence decay (5d) and flip acceleration (5d) as the recent change context for the current values.
Abstention is first-class
- Abstention is a first-class meta-state shown in the sidebar; an active abstention is highlighted distinctly (violet), never folded into the regime or tactical layers.
- A missing abstention read shows as indeterminate, never as "inactive" (which would imply a governed no-abstention verdict we do not have).
Freshness & current-day completeness
- as of / latest available are verbatim governed dates - when they differ, you are seeing the latest available data, not today.
- stale means the data is older than the current period; it is shown as a distinct caution state, never as current.
- current day incomplete (intraday) is shown explicitly: it is not a hard failure - it refreshes after the next governed pipeline run.
- Yesterday's data is never relabelled as current; the freshness badge always reflects the governed truth.
State colours & badges
- Colour encodes governed state truthfully - it is not decoration. Normal/available is neutral grey, never green (there is no "go" cue).
- caution / degraded / stale show in amber; unavailable / missing-source in muted red.
- unknown and indeterminate are shown as muted, distinct from a stable state - missing data never looks normal.
- Short labels are display aliases; the full governed value is preserved in the title / data attributes.
schema: regime_state_read_model_v0
structural regime (slow / stateful)
- regime
- Goldilocks (Growth ↑ / Inflation ↓)
- forecast state
- TRANSITION
- transition risk
- high
- structural instability
- yes
- transition imminence
- yes
tactical instability overlay (fast / reversible)
- flip risk
- 0.4278
- confidence
- 0.5722
- confidence decay (5d)
- 0.0006
- flip acceleration (5d)
- 0.1721
- score disagreement
- 1
- model disagreement
- 0
- instability gate open
- yes
- gate pressure
- NONE
- channels breached
- 1
source: forecast_state_daily.parquet