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What Lantern caution is
- Lantern is a trigger-based caution state machine: it reads governed signals and emits a single caution state - NORMAL, WATCHFUL, CAUTIOUS, DEFENSIVE, or ABSTAIN.
- It is operator decision-support context, NOT a trade signal and NOT a forecast. It does not redefine the structural regime (shown on the Regime state surface) - the two are separate.
- This surface shows the caution state verbatim from the governed read-model; it computes no caution logic and tunes no thresholds.
Reading the caution states
- NORMAL: no warning signals active. WATCHFUL: a minor signal; no action implied. CAUTIOUS: multiple signals; restraint. DEFENSIVE: strong signals. ABSTAIN: critical - the most cautious state.
- Severity and persistence age (how long the state has held) are shown alongside the state for context.
- These are descriptions of caution posture, not instructions to trade.
Morphology: why / response / resolves-when (diagnostic)
- When caution is elevated, the morphology explains WHY (e.g. confidence dropped, disagreement elevated, flip pressure), a minimal RESPONSE posture, and what would RESOLVE it.
- Morphology text appears only when sourced from the governed reason codes; at NORMAL/WATCHFUL it is absent (shown as "no active morphology"), never invented.
- This is a diagnostic explanation of the current state, not an actionable recommendation.
Concordance (vs legacy abstention)
- The concordance flag is the artifact's stored comparison of Lantern's caution against the legacy abstention posture (e.g. LANTERN_MORE_CAUTIOUS).
- It is a separate comparison from the Lantern-vs-Observatory concordance below.
Lantern vs Observatory concordance
- Concordance compares Lantern caution posture with Observatory forecast state. It is diagnostic context, not a regime override or trade signal.
- ALIGNED means both read calm or both read cautious; SPLIT means they disagree (Observatory sees a transition, or Lantern is more cautious); INDETERMINATE means the Observatory state is insufficient to judge.
- It compares two governed categorical states as of a common date; it adds no threshold or model. If the forecast state is missing or no common date is available, the strip shows unavailable - never aligned, never fabricated.
Unavailable, stale & what resolves it
- Missing Lantern data is shown as unavailable - never as NORMAL. Absence of caution is not evidence of calm.
- Stale data is labelled stale/older-than-current, never shown as current; current-day-incomplete is marked explicitly and refreshes after the next governed pipeline run.
- Unavailable resolves when lantern_caution_daily is materialized fresh by a governed run (its inputs - abstention and exposure policy - must be present).
Freshness & current-day completeness
- as of / latest available are verbatim governed dates - when they differ, you are seeing the latest available data, not today.
- stale means the data is older than the current period; it is shown as a distinct caution state, never as current.
- current day incomplete (intraday) is shown explicitly: it is not a hard failure - it refreshes after the next governed pipeline run.
- Yesterday's data is never relabelled as current; the freshness badge always reflects the governed truth.
State colours & badges
- Colour encodes governed state truthfully - it is not decoration. Normal/available is neutral grey, never green (there is no "go" cue).
- caution / degraded / stale show in amber; unavailable / missing-source in muted red.
- unknown and indeterminate are shown as muted, distinct from a stable state - missing data never looks normal.
- Short labels are display aliases; the full governed value is preserved in the title / data attributes.
schema: lantern_caution_read_model_v0
caution state: ABSTAIN
- caution state
- ABSTAIN
- severity
- 4
- reason codes
- CONF_SHOCK|FLIP_ACCEL|SCORE_DISAGREE|TRANSITIONAL
- reason
- -
- persistence age (days)
- 5
- release readiness
- 0.5
- release blocked
- release_conditions_not_met
- prior state
- ABSTAIN
- state changed
- no
- concordance (vs legacy abstention)
- LANTERN_MORE_CAUTIOUS
morphology (why / response / resolves-when) - Transitional
- why
- Regime in structural transition
- response
- Wait for regime to settle; hold positions
- resolves when
- Structural regime stabilizes
policy posture
- initiation restraint
- high
- gross-reduction bias
- strong
- confirmation requirement
- high
- optionality preference
- high
- rebalance hesitation
- significant
Lantern vs Observatory concordance (diagnostic context, not a regime override or trade signal)
ALIGNED (both cautious) (lantern ABSTAIN vs observatory TRANSITION, as of 2026-06-26)
Lantern caution is operator decision-support context (a trigger-based caution state machine); it does NOT redefine the structural regime and is not a trade signal.
source: lantern_caution_daily.parquet